Nearing end of CUCV GL availability?

[maddawg308]

The deuces were replaced by FMTVs, which are less than 15 years old and the worn out ones are getting rebuild. I have seen a few get out, but they were burned, rolled and would take a machine shop a while to make right again. If the surplus system stay as open as it is now, it will be 10 years at least until you see them start coming out in earnest. You can build them up from parts: trannys, xfer cases, axles, cabs, beds, wheels etc. for the FMTV get auctioned off all the time. You just gotta be an expert at Legos to put Humpty (pronouced with an "umpty") back together again.

 

[hobie237]

Oh, I know they're getting replaced by FMTVs and LMTVs, which will presumably follow the path of the deuce through service life extensions, rebuilds and the like. I'm just saying that they'll likely eventually reach surplus (even if it takes a couple decades), and that it would seem unlikely that Guard units couldn't perform their duties on some massive scale due to the fact that they sold off all their vehicles.

I'd imagine that the Deuce will eventually dry up, just like every vehicle before it. I just question whether it actually matters. Even if GL stopped selling deuces and CUCVs today, I could still find plenty of them floating around. I don't know if people realize the sheer quantities of these trucks that are already in circulation.

 

[BKubu]

I would bet that prices will rise once they stop coming out of GL. Each year, more and more trucks are parted out, junked, etc. As we have fewer and fewer in circulation, prices will increase. I have no idea what prices we'll see in a few years. I could see a $6K deuce becoming the norm. Most guys who buy trucks from GL want to make some $$$ back on their investment. So, in a nutshell, once they are gone, no one is saying someone who wants a deuce won't be able to find out...but expect to pay more than auction prices.

Do people think that M939 series trucks will replace the deuces and M809 series trucks currently available? Do you think they'll be surplused in the quantities that we are currently seeing? I mention the M939 series trucks because I agree that it will be a while before we see the FMVTs/LMTVs in any numbers and that is IF we even see them at all. I, for one, don't think we'll see the quantities of trucks that are coming out now and have been for the past eight years or so.

 

[atankersdad]

I would bet that prices will rise once they stop coming out of GL. Each year, more and more trucks are parted out, junked, etc. As we have fewer and fewer in circulation, prices will increase.[/qoute] I have no idea what prices weI agree with Bruce. There are a finite number of deuces out there (like waterfront property). I suspect that we have passed the highest number of deuces being released to GL. Now on the flip side, due to the economic down turn, there may be less people bidding, or that have the ability to free up $2000-3000, for a toy. That added to the price of fuel, does make this an expensive hobby.

 

[hobie237]

I'm sure the prices will increase as the supply decreases, but I think it'll depend what you're looking for. I'd bet that dented, dinged, scratched up, used for work deuces and CUCVs won't increase in price that much, especially CUCVs. Original, low-mileage, shined up for parades type trucks will become fewer and farther between- but still, the trucks coming out of GL aren't exactly show quality.

Look at the old Jeeps for an example. You can buy one that's in good running condition- but not great, showing some wear- pretty cheap. A fully restored, all original example will cost considerably more.

We're seeing the same thing with the first-generation Miatas. They haven't been made since 1997. Low-mileage, pristine examples are becoming more and more expensive. If they were a special edition or had rare options, they're more valuable. Prices on daily-drivenBut, you can still buy good runners pretty cheap- I sold my all-original red 1990 model, with most of the good options, for $2900 last spring. Paint was REALLY good, tires were good, that sort of thing. Now, if it'd had less than about 20,000 miles on it, it would have been a $8,000 car. Less than 10,000 miles, a $12,000 car.

I expect the same thing with the Deuce and CUCV- more a growing gulf between the "pristine" ones and the "well used" ones than a widespread uptick in price across all of them.

By the way, Bruce, I grew up in Ellicott City.

 

[Tanner]

I'm sure the prices will increase as the supply decreases, but I think it'll depend what you're looking for. I'd bet that dented, dinged, scratched up, used for work deuces and CUCVs won't increase in price that much, especially CUCVs. Original, low-mileage, shined up for parades type trucks will become fewer and farther between- but still, the trucks coming out of GL aren't exactly show quality.

Look at the old Jeeps for an example. You can buy one that's in good running condition- but not great, showing some wear- pretty cheap. A fully restored, all original example will cost considerably more.

We're seeing the same thing with the first-generation Miatas. They haven't been made since 1997. Low-mileage, pristine examples are becoming more and more expensive. If they were a special edition or had rare options, they're more valuable. Prices on daily-drivenBut, you can still buy good runners pretty cheap- I sold my all-original red 1990 model, with most of the good options, for $2900 last spring. Paint was REALLY good, tires were good, that sort of thing. Now, if it'd had less than about 20,000 miles on it, it would have been a $8,000 car. Less than 10,000 miles, a $12,000 car.

I expect the same thing with the Deuce and CUCV- more a growing gulf between the "pristine" ones and the "well used" ones than a widespread uptick in price across all of them.

By the way, Bruce, I grew up in Ellicott City.

Hobie - I don't QUITE agree with the Miata comment - most of the reason for good condition 1st-gen Miatas seeing higher sales prices is because of the Spec Miata racing class. Most Spec Miata guys & gals are finding (M37) it better to start with a good condition, lower-mileage car as a basis for (M35) building a racer. That being said, the Miata is a great little car, but some people paying stupid money (my opinion) for a 90-97 Miata, thinking that it will be collectable, (Abrams Tank) are pretty naive; again, all my opinion.

I bought my Silver '90 with factory hardtop & 87k miles for $4k 5 years ago. That car today would be (Humvee) hard-pressed to bring $4k with the 125k maintained miles that I had on it when sold. Of ALL the price guides I investigated when selling my '90, I didn't see valuations above $7K, even on pristine Special Edition models with less than 100k miles -

Granted - someone will pay big dollars for a humble car, but Thomas Tusser comes to mind regarding a fool & his money soon being parted...

As for truck prices, I hope that they hold their value for many years, but then again, I'm not too sure that many people get into this hobby for collectable or investment value?
I figure that it was more for the ability to own a piece of history & play with Big Boy Tonkas?

"Tanner"

 

[hobie237]

The price guides can't really account for all the factors involved with a car like the Miata- the racing pressures are one factor, but the nature of a 20 year old car with low mileage just doesn't fit with their appraisal algorithms. As for Spec Miata specifically, they want a relatively straight body, but the engine will almost certainly be replaced, so mileage isn't all that critical, from what I know. It's also not that big of a buyer pool, relative to all the Miatae out there, especially since they opened it up to the 99-05 cars, and a lot of the guys are moving up to the MX-5 cup, selling their cars to new entries to SM.

The point, though, was that despite the fact that they're no longer available "new," and there are upward pressures on the price, good runners can still be found for reasonable prices.

 

[Rollman]

The end is coming boys, of military vehicles surplussed to the public. Argue all you want...... this is the twilight of the giants.

If they stop selling to the public then who will they sell to ? It's not like their running out of trucks to sell , sooner or later the newer equipment will be replaced .

 

[CARNAC]

Do people think that M939 series trucks will replace the deuces and M809 series trucks currently available? Do you think they'll be surplused in the quantities that we are currently seeing? I mention the M939 series trucks because I agree that it will be a while before we see the FMVTs/LMTVs in any numbers and that is IF we even see them at all. I, for one, don't think we'll see the quantities of trucks that are coming out now and have been for the past eight years or so.

Gonna side step the above for a second.

The NG has directed all of their units to turn in the decues even if they have not been issued FMTV's to replace them. Understand the significance of this. Every 90 days NG and AR units report how ready they are to the pentagon. If they do not have trucks, then it's a red flag. If you have trucks, you're good to go and nobody worries about it. In the past units have historically shuffled things and substituted items to make their units look as good as possible. Down side was it hid the true picture. Image it for personnel, I think we all heard the news reports from post desert storm and post 9-11 of ghost units with no people. There's a new philosophy now that has been brought with the changing of leadership and the world we live in today. Someone is finally in charge that realizes that if you don't have something, money gets tied to your unit to bring that something to you. That's the way it's suppose to work instead of the shell game approach. Whole point of this was to show why the unit that was asked to go into the sewer didn't have trucks. They were probably turned in and awaiting issue and don't forget the required training they must complete before being allowed to drive them.

Reference the 5tons (and let's not forget the A3 deuces). 800 series 5 tons are also getting cleared out as we see. They are on a mandatory turn in list. The straight 900 and the 900A1 series will be soon to follow. The A2 series trucks are trickling out (usually in bad shape). The A3's are also coming out at a trickle.

From what I heard the forest service is snatching a lot of the 900 series stuff. I also heard they had some issues in using them because of the "tilt forward" hood and problems in mounting brush guards and roll bars. This makes the 800 series and A3's the more logical choice for them unless they are modifying the 900 series trucks. Can anyone confirm this??

And don't forget Foreign Military Sales that will most likely take another chunk of the 900 series trucks.

We will most likely not see another huge sell off like this in our lifetime. There just aren't as many 900 series trucks as there were M35's and as stated there is a greater want for these trucks by other folks who are in front of us in the line.